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  1. #61
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    Quote Originally Posted by markharnett View Post
    Yup, lockdowns have started, and I think it was avoidable if everyone just followed the advice, but I guess some people just "knew better".

    I do not envy any government in this situation....they are really between a rock and a hard place - they are damned either way.

    Seasonal flu kills roughly 500,000 each year, which I agree, never gets talked about, but that is partially because it is 'normalised' now, but mainly because COVID-19 is much more virulent, and hence is in every news source - being a novel virus, humans have no innate immunity to it. That and it seems to have a pretty nasty effect on the lungs, which as we all know are quite important for staying alive.

    We are not on exactly the same trajectory as Italy - their deaths escalated a lot more quickly than ours have so far. Up to yesterday, we are on day 18 since the first death in the UK, and have had 282 casualties. At 18 days, Italy had 463.

    The US are actually doing ok. They were only at 108 on day 18, but it has ramped up significantly since then, bit still nowhere near the rate of the big Euro countries.

    It's a shit situation out there. I was one of the lucky 1.5 million to receive a text message today saying I was at high risk and to self isolate for 12 weeks. It's a bit like winning the lottery, but the opposite!

    Stay safe everyone. Hopefully this will all be over while there is still some sunshine left.

    No evidence in any country that sufficient people do as they're told - its like smoking cigarettes: someone else gets the cancer.
    The current lockdown that isn't a lockdown was tried in Spain and failed couple of weeks ago. Be interesting to see if UK is an anomolous nation.
    With NHS workers being mugged in London for their IDs, I'm doubtful.

    Here's a comparison on deaths:
    https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/...y-country.html

    Agree - US death rate quite odd (perhaps a recording issue?), but due to overtake Chinese curve in ~3 days time - we'll see if any of the controls have effect before then - I'm doubtful.

    Like you, I got my 12 week sentence handed out by txt this afternoon. Its going to be a long 12 weeks.
    Last edited by KevinW; 23-03-20 at 11:27 PM.
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  2. #62
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    Kevin, not quite sure what you mean about the Spanish lockdown failing ?

    I was down there until last Sunday and the only failures we really heard about were Brits ! There were a group who were crowded together drinking and taunting the Police dancing around and singing " we got the virus nah nah nah" then mooning at them.

  3. #63
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    Spain are on a very worrying trajectory - they have almost 3 times as many fatalities than Italy did when they were at the same point (21 days in for Spain, 2311 vs. 827).

    I also saw a news article that suggested that some care homes in the country had simply been abandoned with the old folk left to fend for themselves, and in some cases also passed away (probably due to not having anyone to look after them than due to COVID-19).

    I really hope they can get that under control.

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  4. #64
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    Quote Originally Posted by Paul B View Post
    Kevin, not quite sure what you mean about the Spanish lockdown failing ?

    I was down there until last Sunday and the only failures we really heard about were Brits ! There were a group who were crowded together drinking and taunting the Police dancing around and singing " we got the virus nah nah nah" then mooning at them.

    - was referring to previous measures of 'light touch' lockdown (parks left open, then kids cutting tape on zoned off areas, kind of 'do-as-like') - the current Spanish lockdown I think, according to my brother in Madrid, is pretty water tight - proper consequences for non-compliance etc.
    Saw those UK tourists - a complete national embaressment.
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  5. #65
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    I hear the Malaga locked down is strict with police and local police patrol issuing on the spot fines!
    The Spainish have a ruling for only a single person in a car to reduce the numbers in supermarkets and stops people going out for jollies.

    Yet in U.K. Ice cream van is going around taking cash and handing out ice creams in Nottingham according to a friend! The new poly money is plastic so the virus will be on it for three days.

    I see the banks have upped the card swipe rate to £45. Good idea. Less pin entries required.
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  6. #66
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    My experience of the Spanish lockdown is that it is very strict and closely monitored. Having police with guns must add a certain level of authority to their instructions.

    I really am not sure how the UK police are going to convince the recalcitrant yobs to comply without having to resort to a very heavy hand that then gives the do gooders ammunition to have a pop at the police.

  7. #67
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    Quote Originally Posted by Paul B View Post
    My experience of the Spanish lockdown is that it is very strict and closely monitored. Having police with guns must add a certain level of authority to their instructions.

    I really am not sure how the UK police are going to convince the recalcitrant yobs to comply without having to resort to a very heavy hand that then gives the do gooders ammunition to have a pop at the police.

    Exactly my thoughts.
    Being one of the more liberal guys on here, I never thought I'd be the one saying 'get the guns out'!
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  8. #68
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    Quote Originally Posted by Paul B View Post
    I really am not sure how the UK police are going to convince the recalcitrant yobs to comply without having to resort to a very heavy hand that then gives the do gooders ammunition to have a pop at the police.
    This is why they have drafted in the military!

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  9. #69
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    They should have thrown all of those tourists in jail for 6months. Morons, the lot of them!
    Charlie

    Quote Originally Posted by KevinW View Post
    - was referring to previous measures of 'light touch' lockdown (parks left open, then kids cutting tape on zoned off areas, kind of 'do-as-like') - the current Spanish lockdown I think, according to my brother in Madrid, is pretty water tight - proper consequences for non-compliance etc.
    Saw those UK tourists - a complete national embaressment.
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  10. #70
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    Thought I would post this link again as the data have been updated, and it may just offer some (relative) cheer for the UK.

    https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/...y-country.html

    You can see the trends very clearly - looks like Italy is going to plateau at somewhere just below 10k lost for a population of around 60M. Compare with S Korea that should plateau at around 200 and population of about 50M people, its disastrous.
    By contrast, Japan, with a population almost double that of the UK, has produced an extraordinary response.

    Currently no end in sight for US and other European countries with lamentable management of the crisis.

    However, UK data is now, perhaps, starting to bend over with a doubling time of currently 4 days. That is based on a very limited fit on the data, and could still flipback to 3 days. However.... if it holds up, and continues to improve.... it might just suggest a curve mirroring the Chinese one..... if we are lucky. If sustained, and after a bad start to the crisis. this would be a major achievement. Keeping my fingers crossed.
    Last edited by KevinW; 26-03-20 at 07:41 AM.
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